Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 12.423340 13.977373 15.735012 17.887985 20.478795 23.528169 27.437521
2025-05-11 10.583824 12.589073 15.049133 18.351635 22.769988 28.634206 37.295374
2025-05-18 9.263666 11.403195 14.165756 18.104252 23.772404 31.983202 45.526661
2025-05-25 8.330885 10.525626 13.473444 17.881647 24.618256 35.138152 54.323735
2025-06-01 7.659503 9.890251 12.987970 17.815998 25.600184 38.632656 64.852673
2025-06-08 7.003413 9.194349 12.315854 17.341654 25.802045 40.812504 73.720377
2025-06-15 6.571547 8.768348 11.978351 17.317859 26.713268 44.437918 87.183807
2025-06-22 6.024721 8.124601 11.244633 16.549077 26.169434 45.117491 94.122705
2025-06-29 5.532567 7.524532 10.524173 15.715159 25.367197 45.078692 99.254735
2025-07-06 5.161098 7.080422 10.010689 15.175577 25.033395 45.960282 107.479062
2025-07-13 5.279069 7.390346 10.719704 16.851649 29.329073 58.552809 161.624577
2025-07-20 5.165049 7.325871 10.806015 17.405679 31.435585 66.683428 209.894285
2025-07-27 4.841001 6.915625 10.296028 16.811884 31.012192 68.180890 233.047509
2025-08-03 4.712869 6.815365 10.310203 17.239941 33.020089 77.522413 311.668382
2025-08-10 4.494942 6.551856 10.015633 17.013123 33.424709 82.166954 373.661972
2025-08-17 4.299707 6.314003 9.747817 16.809095 33.849261 87.125700 452.169590
2025-08-24 4.141084 6.128248 9.559460 16.748905 34.636550 93.817696 570.534029
2025-08-31 3.944276 5.866489 9.213484 16.313775 34.344189 96.355375 659.091011
2025-09-07 3.816239 5.716341 9.064123 16.291936 35.193314 104.021152 859.331687
2025-09-14 3.610730 5.421782 8.625784 15.585806 33.976763 102.338848 909.562479
2025-09-21 3.410075 5.128079 8.175023 14.818597 32.484790 98.989185 921.598632
2025-09-28 3.254401 4.907601 7.853324 14.321465 31.728326 98.860075 1009.115825
2025-10-05 3.347457 5.129975 8.393730 15.863851 37.473900 134.560104 2796.633690